State Learning and International Change by Farkas Andrew;

Author:Farkas, Andrew;
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: University of Michigan Press

We are now ready to determine the beliefs that individuals in the next “generation”—that is, at the time of the next decision—will hold. Let us restrict each generation to the same number of individuals and every individual in each generation to the same number of beliefs. For each individual, we need to draw a set of beliefs that will form the basis of her opinions. This drawing is a two-stage process. First we must determine who the “intellectual parents,” or, to use Boyd and Richerson's (1985, 53) term, the “role models” are. Once we have selected the role models, we need to determine which beliefs the person will inherit. For instance, an individual may “inherit” the belief from Ronald Reagan that low taxes are good and from Bill Clinton the belief that national health insurance is also good. Note that one can inherit many beliefs from one individual and simultaneously one can inherit beliefs that will affect one's opinion on a several issues from a variety of different role models. Indeed, it is possible to inherit conflicting beliefs on one issue. Thus, one could believe that war is terrible because it is so destructive and also believe that war is a useful tool in international politics. Similarly, one could believe that cutting taxes is good and also think that balanced budgets are essential for effective government.

The model needs a mechanism that will select role models so that a person's chance of becoming a role model is proportional to her fitness. The best way to imagine this type of selection is to consider a roulette wheel, where each individual in the role model generation has a share of that wheel proportional to the relative fitness of her opinion (øi, eq. 4.12), and role models are selected by spinning the wheel. 8 Thus, if one individual's opinion was twice as fit as another's, the chance of drawing the first individual as a role model is twice as great as the chance of drawing the second.

Once the “roulette wheel” has identified a role model, all that remains is to select at random one belief from among the beliefs the role model held at the time of the last decision. The unbiased drawing of beliefs, as well as the biased drawing of role models, is done with replacement. Every time one selects a particular individual as a role model, each of that person's beliefs has an equal chance of being inherited.

To recapitulate, the members of the policy elite have a set of beliefs (Bi) about different issues that may require decisions. When they are faced with a specific choice, they vote and implement a policy, t,j (eq. 4.8). Individuals then influence future decisions based on their successors' evaluation of the soundness of their recommendations compared with the other policies considered, that is, proportional to their relative fitness. 9

Note that the move from recommendation to influence is predicated on the policy being satisfactory, that is, Rt,j ≥ 1—τ (eq. 4.9). Once the elite has implemented a satisfactory policy, however, its requirements for success change.

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